chicot60
06-01-2011, 03:12 PM
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CTV.ca News Staff
The official word is in from the weather whizzes at Environment Canada: it's going to be a warmer-than-usual summer for almost every part of Canada.
The official three-month summer forecast, released Wednesday, confirms the agency's unofficial prognosis made last month. Only a handful of parts of the country will miss out on higher temps -- notably P.E.I., Nova Scotia and parts of Newfoundland.
But the rest of the country looks set for plenty of warmth, says Environment Canada senior climatologist David Phillips.
"Our models are showing that almost from coast to coast to coast, we'll be having warmer than normal temperatures," Phillips told CTV.ca Thursday morning.
But that's about as much as he can be sure of.
"People ask me, ‘Well, how much warmer?' And the fact is: we can't say; we just feel lucky if we get the sign right," he said.
"We can predict it'll be warmer than usual, or colder than usual but we can't say how much warmer."
Vague or not, the news that it's going to be a bit of scorcher this summer should come as relief for the many Canadians who felt cheated by an almost endless, soggy spring.
"I'm sure many Canadians have been worried, thinking that this spring was going to be a dry run – or a wet run – for what the summer is going to be like. And no, it's not," says Phillips.
As for the precipitation outlook, it's a mixed bag, with some parts of the country expected to get more rain than normal, and other parts less. Most of British Columbia and southern regions of Ontario and Quebec are expected to be drier than normal, while the Prairies could see more precipitation than usual.
But Phillips points out that predicting precipitation patterns over three months is much harder than anticipating temperatures – which is hard enough in itself.
"To tell you the truth, we'd rather not issue a precipitation forecast at all," he said. "If we get it right, I like to say it's more by chance, really. It's just really hard to predict."
Forecasting seasonal weather in Canada is extremely challenging, in part because the country is so vast and so many factors play in, says Phillips.
"It's one of the hardest things to do in Canada: to come up with a seasonal forecast for all of Canada. It's easy in Malta or Cyprus, but in Canada, where the weather attacks you from every direction, it's really hard to feel really sure about the forecast in any season," he says.
Despite the imprecise nature of seasonal forecasts, Phillips knows that Canadians love them nonetheless, waiting with bated breath to hear them so they can then kvetch about them around the water cooler.
"But if they knew the true accuracy of them, they'd probably just dismiss them so quickly," says Phillips.
"Now, we wouldn't do them if we didn't feel there was some science behind it. It's not like the Farmer's Almanac. There are reasons why it should be warmer than normal. The only thing is that nature has a way of breaking down."
And of course, while the summer will be warmer than normal overall, there is always lots of room for variability. That's why Phillips would never advise anyone to plan their summer vacations based on a seasonal forecast.
Not only can the weather change from week to week, a sweltering July could be offset by a freezing August and the forecast will still have been correct if it averages out to warmer than normal.
"We know that things can change from one day to the next," says Phillips. "That's the thing about Canada: if you don't' like the look of the weather out your front door, look out your back door. It changes on a dime."
http://ottawa.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20110601/summer-weather-forecast-110601/20110601/?hub=OttawaHome
CTV.ca News Staff
The official word is in from the weather whizzes at Environment Canada: it's going to be a warmer-than-usual summer for almost every part of Canada.
The official three-month summer forecast, released Wednesday, confirms the agency's unofficial prognosis made last month. Only a handful of parts of the country will miss out on higher temps -- notably P.E.I., Nova Scotia and parts of Newfoundland.
But the rest of the country looks set for plenty of warmth, says Environment Canada senior climatologist David Phillips.
"Our models are showing that almost from coast to coast to coast, we'll be having warmer than normal temperatures," Phillips told CTV.ca Thursday morning.
But that's about as much as he can be sure of.
"People ask me, ‘Well, how much warmer?' And the fact is: we can't say; we just feel lucky if we get the sign right," he said.
"We can predict it'll be warmer than usual, or colder than usual but we can't say how much warmer."
Vague or not, the news that it's going to be a bit of scorcher this summer should come as relief for the many Canadians who felt cheated by an almost endless, soggy spring.
"I'm sure many Canadians have been worried, thinking that this spring was going to be a dry run – or a wet run – for what the summer is going to be like. And no, it's not," says Phillips.
As for the precipitation outlook, it's a mixed bag, with some parts of the country expected to get more rain than normal, and other parts less. Most of British Columbia and southern regions of Ontario and Quebec are expected to be drier than normal, while the Prairies could see more precipitation than usual.
But Phillips points out that predicting precipitation patterns over three months is much harder than anticipating temperatures – which is hard enough in itself.
"To tell you the truth, we'd rather not issue a precipitation forecast at all," he said. "If we get it right, I like to say it's more by chance, really. It's just really hard to predict."
Forecasting seasonal weather in Canada is extremely challenging, in part because the country is so vast and so many factors play in, says Phillips.
"It's one of the hardest things to do in Canada: to come up with a seasonal forecast for all of Canada. It's easy in Malta or Cyprus, but in Canada, where the weather attacks you from every direction, it's really hard to feel really sure about the forecast in any season," he says.
Despite the imprecise nature of seasonal forecasts, Phillips knows that Canadians love them nonetheless, waiting with bated breath to hear them so they can then kvetch about them around the water cooler.
"But if they knew the true accuracy of them, they'd probably just dismiss them so quickly," says Phillips.
"Now, we wouldn't do them if we didn't feel there was some science behind it. It's not like the Farmer's Almanac. There are reasons why it should be warmer than normal. The only thing is that nature has a way of breaking down."
And of course, while the summer will be warmer than normal overall, there is always lots of room for variability. That's why Phillips would never advise anyone to plan their summer vacations based on a seasonal forecast.
Not only can the weather change from week to week, a sweltering July could be offset by a freezing August and the forecast will still have been correct if it averages out to warmer than normal.
"We know that things can change from one day to the next," says Phillips. "That's the thing about Canada: if you don't' like the look of the weather out your front door, look out your back door. It changes on a dime."
http://ottawa.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20110601/summer-weather-forecast-110601/20110601/?hub=OttawaHome